USA —A seismic shift is on the horizon in the field of healthcare as Airfinity, the world’s premier disease forecasting company, illuminates a groundbreaking trajectory for the elderly respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccine market in the G7 countries.
With projections soaring to unprecedented heights, this revolutionary development promises to generate US$10.5 billion annually by 2030, providing hope and protection to a vulnerable population.
Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), a formidable adversary of the respiratory tract, poses a grave threat to the elderly and infants alike.
Its impact is profound, leading to hospitalizations and fatalities, particularly among older adults. In the United States alone, the annual toll manifests in an alarming 60,000 to 160,000 hospitalizations and 6,000 to 10,000 deaths attributed to RSV infection.
A watershed moment is upon us, as not one, but two RSV vaccines prepare to grace the stage in the United States and the United Kingdom.
This imminent roll-out, scheduled for the forthcoming autumn and winter, heralds a pivotal juncture in healthcare history.
Market projections unveiled
Leading the charge is GSK’s Arexvy, poised to commandeer a remarkable 56% market share, translating to US$500 million in sales this year.
In tandem, Pfizer’s Abrysvo will contribute a significant 44%, amounting to US$400 million. GSK’s Arexvy, a beacon of innovation and efficacy, stands to maintain its market dominance due to its pioneering status as the first approved elderly RSV vaccine across key regions.
While GSK’s Arexvy assumes the throne, Moderna’s mRNA-1345 emerges as a formidable contender.
Despite entering the scene later, this candidate is projected to carve its own path and secure market share from both GSK and Pfizer.
With a strategic trajectory, Moderna’s vaccine is predicted to surpass Pfizer’s in the years that lie ahead.
A glance into the future
Fast forward to 2030, where Airfinity’s foresight illuminates a landscape transformed. GSK’s Arexvy is anticipated to generate a remarkable US$3.7 billion annually, with Moderna’s mRNA-1345 not far behind at US$3.6 billion.
Pfizer’s Abrysvo will hold its ground with yearly sales of $3.1 billion. The G7 nations, with the United States at the helm, are poised to claim 45% of total sales.
As the United States and the United Kingdom embark on their vaccine rollout journey in the 2023/2024 season, a cascade of change is anticipated.
Other nations will follow suit the following year, with Japan potentially commencing rollout in 2026. The forecasted coverage suggests that Japan’s vaccine revenues could even surpass its counterparts within three years of launch.
A transformative year ahead
Salvini Datta, Airfinity’s Health Economist, highlights the monumental significance of the current year in the fight against RSV.
With two groundbreaking vaccines poised to safeguard the elderly and an antibody-drug catering to infants, the healthcare landscape is poised for a paradigm shift.
The journey toward comprehensive vaccine coverage is a gradual one, influenced by accessibility and the efficacy of public health campaigns.
Datta envisions a triumphant future for GSK, Pfizer, and Moderna’s vaccines, envisaging their dominance until innovative combination shots targeting COVID-19, flu, and RSV gain approval.
As the realm of healthcare advances, these pioneering vaccines are destined to weave a tapestry of health and hope, transcending boundaries and transforming lives.
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